Hurricane Helene preliminary report
Preliminary reports on Hurricane Helene suggest that it is a small loss to the reinsurance industry albeit a record-breaking event. Data is still unfolding. Key facts as follows:-
- made landfall Friday 27th September
- location of landfall: 40 miles east of Tallahassee, County Taylor, Florida, USA aka the Big Bend region
- Highest windspeeds at landfall: Category 4 about 140mph
- 8th named storm of 2024 season, 2nd major hurricane after Beryl
- economic loss damage estimates: $22bn per Wikipedia
- insured loss estimates - see below
- Peak storm surge: 8' to 10'
- Rainfall in region: 6" to 10"
Comments by various sources (preliminary only before inland flood and wind losses in states such as Georgia and the Carolinas)
Guy Carp: "the eye of Helene passed just east of Tallahassee which likely eliminates higher insured loss scenarios (excluding NFIP*) in excess of $10B USD. As a result, the vast majority of wind losses will likely be retained by primary insurers rather than ceded to reinsurers." "the strongest landfalling hurricane for the Big Bend region .." "one of the least populated areas of the entire US coastline..." Their postevent report available here.
Moody's: economic estimate of US$20bn to US$34bn. Tampa and St Petersburg were affected with record breaking storm surges that unleashed significant flooding.." AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Helene in the U.S. is between $95 billion and $110 billion.
Morningstar: $3bn to $5bn insured losses
AM Best: $5bn insured losses
Fitch: $5bn to $10bn insured losses
Corelogic: $3bn to $5bn insured losses excluding NFIP losses
Andrew Siffert of BMS: Flood take up rates in Taylor County less than 10% and in Tampa Bay about 25% so a lot of uninsured losses.
Comment: Local US carriers will retain most of the insured loss with some involvement of NFIP*, given that attachment points of their reinsurance protections have increased in recent years. Helene may cause some Florida carriers some financial pressure. The Big Bend region has now experienced its third hurricane in just over a year: Helene, Idalia and Debby. We are still in the active part of the Atlantic Hurricane season!
*The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides flood insurance to property owners, renters and businesses, and having this coverage helps them recover faster when floodwaters recede. The NFIP works with communities required to adopt and enforce floodplain management regulations that help mitigate flooding effects.